Our predictions, graded in public
Every pick the SwiftScore Engine makes is locked before kick-off and scored against the real result. Wins and losses, nothing hidden, nothing edited after the fact. This is the whole record.
What these numbers mean
- Accuracy (hit rate)
- The share of our match-result picks that came in. As a yardstick, the favourite alone wins roughly 50–55% of matches — the engine aims to beat that, especially on its high-confidence calls.
- Calibration (Brier score)
- The honest test: when we say 70%, does it happen ~70% of the time? Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin toss. Almost no rival publishes this.
- Locked & never edited
- Each prediction is written down before kick-off with the confidence and odds at the time, and can't be changed afterwards. No deleting losers, no cherry-picking winners.
Betting performance (18+)
Our betting-value record is an 18+ feature. The prediction accuracy and calibration above are what build trust — and they're free for everyone.
How the SwiftScore Engine is built — and how it learns
Three signals vote on every match; the engine tracks each one's accuracy and auto-weights the blend toward whatever's working — so it keeps adapting as results come in. (Plain-English deep dive on How it works.)
Plus a blend toward the market's own de-margined price. Measured on 6,669 walk-forward backtested matches (each predicted using only earlier data).
Calibration — are our probabilities honest?
When we say a pick is X% likely, does it happen X% of the time? Almost no rival publishes this. Brier 0.234 (lower is better).
| We said | Picks | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30% | 122 | 29% | 33% |
| 30–40% | 981 | 37% | 39% |
| 40–50% | 2,301 | 45% | 45% |
| 50–60% | 1,570 | 55% | 54% |
| 60–70% | 1,052 | 65% | 64% |
| 70–80% | 516 | 74% | 77% |
| 80–90% | 160 | 83% | 86% |
| 90–100% | 3 | 91% | 33% · small sample |
Bands with fewer than 30 graded picks are greyed — too few to read anything into yet. The honest test is whether the well-populated bands track the diagonal.
By league (prediction accuracy by competition)
| League | Picks | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 760 | 55% |
| Primeira Liga | 765 | 57% |
| La Liga | 760 | 53% |
| Premier League | 760 | 55% |
| Eredivisie | 612 | 55% |
| Bundesliga | 765 | 51% |
| Ligue 1 | 649 | 51% |
| Championship | 1,383 | 46% |
Benchmark: favourites win ~50–55% of matches.
Recent results
New to the engine? See how the SwiftScore Engine works, then browse today's predictions.