Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Wed 4 Mar, 19:30
Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 32%
Draw 29%
Away 39%

💡 Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a slight edge — leaning Bayer 04 Leverkusen, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 41.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1472 v 1549 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index 1.6 v 1.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1549 vs 1472).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leverkusen
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
HSV

Green = favours HSV · Blue = favours Leverkusen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HSVDWWDL1.6 ppg
LeverkusenWDWLD1.6 ppg
Power Rating
HSV1472
Leverkusen1549
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model37% · 27% · 36%
Power Rating36% · 26% · 38%
Machine-learning22% · 35% · 43%

AI match preview

Hamburger SV and Bayer 04 Leverkusen are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the visitors at 39% probability, while a draw is also quite possible at 29%. Both teams are projected to score similarly, with expected goals nearly level at 1.53 for Hamburg and 1.51 for Leverkusen, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open game—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.51

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 59%

Under 41%

Both teams to score

Yes 62%

No 38%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV
Mar 2026 Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen