1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 21 Feb, 14:30
1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (48%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 27%
Draw 25%
Away 48%

💡 Bayer 04 Leverkusen are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 54.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 54.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1457 v 1566 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 2.0 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Union Berlin v Leverkusen

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1566 vs 1457).
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leverkusen
Form Index
Leverkusen
Goal expectation
Leverkusen
Home advantage
Union Berlin

Green = favours Union Berlin · Blue = favours Leverkusen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Union BerlinDLLDL0.4 ppg
LeverkusenLWWDW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Union Berlin1457
Leverkusen1566
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 25% · 47%
Power Rating34% · 23% · 43%
Machine-learning18% · 27% · 56%

AI match preview

In this Bundesliga clash, Bayer 04 Leverkusen holds a 48% chance of securing an away win against 1. FC Union Berlin, while a draw remains a plausible outcome with a 25% probability. Both teams are projected to find the net, as indicated by a 67% BTTS likelihood, and the match could see over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, reflecting an open and competitive encounter. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 1-1, but as always, these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.91

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 66%

Under 34%

Both teams to score

Yes 67%

No 33%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadion An der Alten Forsterei Berlin, Germany Capacity 22,012 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Oct 2025 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 1. FC Union Berlin