1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Prediction

Bundesliga · Fri 20 Feb, 19:30
1. FSV Mainz 05
11 Full time
Hamburger SV
1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 27%
Away 28%

💡 1. FSV Mainz 05 have a slight edge — leaning 1. FSV Mainz 05, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1463 v 1482 HSV rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Mainz v HSV

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1463 vs 1482).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
HSV
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
Mainz

Green = favours Mainz · Blue = favours HSV. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MainzLWWWL1.8 ppg
HSVDDDWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Mainz1463
HSV1482
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 33% · 18%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning41% · 27% · 32%

AI match preview

Mainz 05 holds a slight advantage at home with a 44% chance of victory, supported by an expected goals tally of 1.26 compared to Hamburg's 0.68. The model suggests a low-scoring affair with a most likely scoreline of 1-0, while the probabilities for both teams scoring (37%) and over 2.5 goals (31%) remain modest. These projections are statistical estimates and should be used responsibly; please gamble only if you are 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.26 – 0.68

Most likely score

1-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 31%

Under 69%

Both teams to score

Yes 37%

No 63%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV
Oct 2025 Hamburger SV 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05