Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 28 Feb, 14:30
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (68%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 68%
Draw 14%
Away 17%

💡 Bayer 04 Leverkusen are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 82.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 82.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1553 v 1461 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index 2.0 v 2.0 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Leverkusen v Mainz

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1553 vs 1461).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leverkusen
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Leverkusen
Home advantage
Leverkusen

Green = favours Leverkusen · Blue = favours Mainz. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LeverkusenWWDWL2.0 ppg
MainzWWWLD2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Leverkusen1553
Mainz1461
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model71% · 18% · 10%
Power Rating62% · 13% · 25%
Machine-learning72% · 12% · 16%

AI match preview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen enters this Bundesliga clash as clear favorites with a 68% chance to secure a home win, supported by a strong confidence rating of 82/100. The model predicts an expected goals tally of 2.48 for Leverkusen against 0.88 for Mainz, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0. While there’s a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance both teams will score, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.48 – 0.88

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 65%

Under 35%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05
Oct 2025 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen