Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Bundesliga · Sun 1 Mar, 18:30
Hamburger SV
12 Full time
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV 1–2 RB Leipzig

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (32%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 32%
Away 36%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 37.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1483 v 1547 RB Leipzig rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on HSV v RB Leipzig

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Why we predict this

  • RB Leipzig is the stronger side on Power Rating (1547 vs 1483).
  • Hamburger SV is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
RB Leipzig
Form Index
HSV
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
HSV

Green = favours HSV · Blue = favours RB Leipzig. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HSVDDWWD1.8 ppg
RB LeipzigDLWDD1.2 ppg
Power Rating
HSV1483
RB Leipzig1547
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model36% · 29% · 35%
Power Rating37% · 27% · 36%
Machine-learning24% · 39% · 37%

AI match preview

Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig are poised for a tightly contested Bundesliga clash, with the model suggesting a slight edge to the visitors but a draw remains the most probable outcome at 32% confidence. Both teams are expected to produce a close game, with anticipated goals nearly equal at 1.36 for Hamburg and 1.32 for Leipzig, pointing toward a likely 1-1 stalemate. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, fans can expect an open match, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.32

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Hamburger SV 1–2 RB Leipzig
Oct 2025 RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburger SV