SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 7 Mar, 14:30
SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (37%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 35%
Draw 28%
Away 37%

💡 Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a slight edge — leaning Bayer 04 Leverkusen, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 37.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1490 v 1559 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Freiburg v Leverkusen

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Why we predict this

  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1559 vs 1490).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leverkusen
Form Index
Leverkusen
Goal expectation
Freiburg
Home advantage
Freiburg

Green = favours Freiburg · Blue = favours Leverkusen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FreiburgLWLWL1.2 ppg
LeverkusenDWLDW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Freiburg1490
Leverkusen1559
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 27% · 29%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning26% · 30% · 44%

AI match preview

SC Freiburg and Bayer 04 Leverkusen are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 37%, though a home victory or draw remain plausible outcomes. The expected goals suggest a tight game, projecting 1.65 for Freiburg and 1.32 for Leverkusen, with 1-1 as the most likely scoreline. There is a 57% chance the match will see over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability both teams will score; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.32

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 57%

Under 43%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Europa-Park Stadion Freiburg, Germany Capacity 34,700 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Oct 2025 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 SC Freiburg