TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 4 Apr, 14:30
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (64%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 64%
Draw 16%
Away 21%

💡 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 76.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 76.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1572 v 1496 Hoffenheim rated higher
Form Index 1 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is the stronger side on Power Rating (1572 vs 1496).
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.2 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Hoffenheim
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Hoffenheim
Home advantage
Hoffenheim

Green = favours Hoffenheim · Blue = favours Mainz. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HoffenheimDLWDL1 ppg
MainzDDDWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Hoffenheim1572
Mainz1496
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model63% · 22% · 16%
Power Rating59% · 14% · 26%
Machine-learning70% · 11% · 19%

AI match preview

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim enter this Bundesliga clash as favorites with a 64% chance of securing a home win, backed by an expected goals tally of 2.24 compared to Mainz's 1.06. Despite Hoffenheim’s advantage, the most likely scoreline stands at 1-1, highlighting a potentially competitive encounter with a 16% chance of a draw. With a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate an engaging match, but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.24 – 1.06

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 64%

Under 36%

Both teams to score

Yes 60%

No 40%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05
Nov 2025 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim