Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 11 Apr, 14:30
Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (64%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 64%
Draw 16%
Away 20%

💡 Borussia Dortmund are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 76.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 76.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1669 v 1566 Dortmund rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Dortmund v Leverkusen

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Why we predict this

  • Borussia Dortmund is the stronger side on Power Rating (1669 vs 1566).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.2 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Dortmund
Form Index
Dortmund
Goal expectation
Dortmund
Home advantage
Dortmund

Green = favours Dortmund · Blue = favours Leverkusen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
DortmundLWWWW2.4 ppg
LeverkusenWDDDW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Dortmund1669
Leverkusen1566
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model58% · 22% · 20%
Power Rating64% · 12% · 24%
Machine-learning70% · 14% · 17%

AI match preview

Borussia Dortmund are favored to win this Bundesliga clash against Bayer 04 Leverkusen, with a 64% probability and a confidence rating of 76/100. The model projects an expected goals tally of 2.20 for Dortmund and 1.26 for Leverkusen, yet interestingly suggests a 1-1 as the most likely scoreline. With a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and 65% likelihood of both teams scoring, this encounter promises attacking action, though outcomes remain uncertain—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.26

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 67%

Under 33%

Both teams to score

Yes 65%

No 35%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Signal Iduna Park Dortmund, Germany Capacity 81,365 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Nov 2025 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund