1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg Prediction

Bundesliga · Sun 12 Apr, 18:30
1. FSV Mainz 05
01 Full time
SC Freiburg
1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (49%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 49%
Draw 25%
Away 25%

💡 1. FSV Mainz 05 are favourites — about 49 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 56.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 56.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1511 v 1481 Mainz rated higher
Form Index 2.2 v 0.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Mainz v Freiburg

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1511 vs 1481).
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mainz
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
Mainz

Green = favours Mainz · Blue = favours Freiburg. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MainzDDWWW2.2 ppg
FreiburgLDLWL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Mainz1511
Freiburg1481
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 30% · 24%
Power Rating52% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning50% · 29% · 21%

AI match preview

FSV Mainz 05 hold a slight edge with a 49% chance to win against SC Freiburg, according to model projections, though a draw remains a reasonable 25% possibility. Expected goals suggest a moderately tight contest, with Mainz scoring around 1.46 and Freiburg 0.99, aligning closely with the most probable 1-1 scoreline. With a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability both teams score, this matchup could see competitive action—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.99

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg
Nov 2025 SC Freiburg 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05