Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Sun 19 Apr, 18:30
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (37%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 36%
Draw 27%
Away 37%

💡 1. FSV Mainz 05 have a slight edge — leaning 1. FSV Mainz 05, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 38.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1444 v 1497 Mainz rated higher
Form Index 1 v 2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on M'gladbach v Mainz

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Why we predict this

  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 is the stronger side on Power Rating (1497 vs 1444).
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mainz
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
M'gladbach

Green = favours M'gladbach · Blue = favours Mainz. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
M'gladbachLWDDL1 ppg
MainzDWWWL2 ppg
Power Rating
M'gladbach1444
Mainz1497
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model36% · 28% · 37%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning34% · 27% · 40%

AI match preview

Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 37% probability over a home victory at 36%. The expected goals are nearly even (1.43 vs. 1.46), suggesting a tight match likely to produce goals from both sides, supported by a 60% chance of both teams scoring and a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but with confidence in the away win pick at 38/100, fans should anticipate a competitive encounter; remember, these are statistical projections and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.46

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 55%

Under 45%

Both teams to score

Yes 60%

No 40%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Borussia-Park Monchengladbach, Germany Capacity 54,042 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05
Dec 2025 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach