RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin Prediction

Bundesliga · Fri 24 Apr, 19:30
RB Leipzig
31 Full time
1. FC Union Berlin
RB Leipzig 3–1 1. FC Union Berlin

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (77%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 77%
Draw 12%
Away 11%

💡 RB Leipzig are strong favourites — roughly 8 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 94.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 94.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1606 v 1409 RB Leipzig rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 0.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • RB Leipzig is the stronger side on Power Rating (1606 vs 1409).
  • RB Leipzig is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
RB Leipzig
Form Index
RB Leipzig
Goal expectation
RB Leipzig
Home advantage
RB Leipzig

Green = favours RB Leipzig · Blue = favours Union Berlin. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RB LeipzigLWWWW2.4 ppg
Union BerlinWLDLL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
RB Leipzig1606
Union Berlin1409
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model69% · 20% · 11%
Power Rating72% · 12% · 16%
Machine-learning89% · 6% · 5%

AI match preview

RB Leipzig are strongly favored to secure a home victory against 1. FC Union Berlin, with a 77% probability and a high confidence rating of 94/100. The model projects an expected goals tally of 2.36 for Leipzig versus 0.87 for Union Berlin, making a 2-0 scoreline the most likely outcome. While over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance and both teams scoring sits at 54%, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.36 – 0.87

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Red Bull Arena Leipzig, Germany Capacity 47,069 · grass
Clear · 13.4°C
Feels like 11°C Wind 10 km/h Rain chance 0%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 RB Leipzig 3–1 1. FC Union Berlin
Dec 2025 1. FC Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig