FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Sun 3 May, 14:30
FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (44%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 28%
Draw 28%
Away 44%

💡 1. FSV Mainz 05 have a slight edge — leaning 1. FSV Mainz 05, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1389 v 1492 Mainz rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 is the stronger side on Power Rating (1492 vs 1389).
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mainz
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
St. Pauli

Green = favours St. Pauli · Blue = favours Mainz. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
St. PauliLDLDL0.4 ppg
MainzWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
St. Pauli1389
Mainz1492
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 29% · 44%
Power Rating34% · 24% · 42%
Machine-learning21% · 33% · 46%

AI match preview

In this Bundesliga clash, 1. FSV Mainz 05 holds a statistical edge with a 44% chance of an away win compared to FC St. Pauli's 28%, though the model also suggests a draw is equally possible at 28%. The expected goals favor Mainz slightly at 1.50 versus St. Pauli's 1.14, with the most likely scoreline projected as a 1-1 draw. With a 54% probability of both teams scoring and just under even odds for over 2.5 goals, this game could see a competitive and balanced outcome; remember these projections are based on data and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.50

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05
Dec 2025 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC St. Pauli 1910