VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 9 May, 14:30
VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 23%
Away 33%

💡 VfB Stuttgart have a slight edge — leaning VfB Stuttgart, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1588 v 1592 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index 1 v 2.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Stuttgart v Leverkusen

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1588 vs 1592).
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Leverkusen
Goal expectation
Stuttgart
Home advantage
Stuttgart

Green = favours Stuttgart · Blue = favours Leverkusen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
StuttgartLWLDD1 ppg
LeverkusenWWLWW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Stuttgart1588
Leverkusen1592
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 28% · 29%
Power Rating46% · 22% · 32%
Machine-learning45% · 18% · 37%

AI match preview

VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 45% probability. Both sides are expected to score, as indicated by a 57% chance of BTTS, and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw despite Stuttgart's marginally higher expected goals (1.54 vs. 1.23). Over 2.5 goals is just above even at 52%, suggesting a balanced encounter; remember these are statistical projections and please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.23

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

MHPArena Stuttgart, Germany Capacity 60,449 · grass
Mainly clear · 22.6°C
Feels like 22.3°C Wind 5 km/h Rain chance 10%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Jan 2026 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–4 VfB Stuttgart