Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Prediction

Bundesliga · Sat 16 May, 14:30
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (72%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 72%
Draw 13%
Away 14%

💡 Bayer 04 Leverkusen are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 88.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 88.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1579 v 1454 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Leverkusen v HSV

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Why we predict this

  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1579 vs 1454).
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leverkusen
Form Index
Leverkusen
Goal expectation
Leverkusen
Home advantage
Leverkusen

Green = favours Leverkusen · Blue = favours HSV. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LeverkusenWLWWL1.8 ppg
HSVLLLWW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Leverkusen1579
HSV1454
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model72% · 19% · 9%
Power Rating66% · 12% · 22%
Machine-learning80% · 10% · 11%

AI match preview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen enter this Bundesliga clash as strong favorites with a 72% chance of securing a home win, backed by an expected goals advantage of 2.40 to 0.78. The model suggests a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a moderate 61% probability of the match seeing over 2.5 goals and an even chance of both teams scoring. These projections are statistical estimates and should be used responsibly; please gamble only if you're 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.40 – 0.78

Most likely score

2-0

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 61%

Under 39%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV
Mar 2026 Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen