Derby County FC vs Middlesbrough FC Prediction

Championship · Thu 1 Jan, 15:00
Derby County FC 1–0 Middlesbrough FC

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (37%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 36%
Draw 27%
Away 37%

💡 Middlesbrough FC have a slight edge — leaning Middlesbrough FC, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 37.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1495 v 1547 Middlesbrough rated higher
Form Index DWDDL v WWLDL Derby County 1.2 · Middlesbrough 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Middlesbrough FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1547 vs 1495).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.7 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Middlesbrough
Form Index
Middlesbrough
Goal expectation
Middlesbrough
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Middlesbrough. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyDWDDL1.2 ppg
MiddlesbroughWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1495
Middlesbrough1547
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 27% · 49%
Power Rating39% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning45% · 27% · 28%

AI match preview

Derby County FC host Middlesbrough FC in a closely matched Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to an away win at 37% compared to 36% for a home victory. The expected goals suggest a moderately open game, with 1.10 for Derby and 1.65 for Middlesbrough, while the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. There is a 52% chance the match will see over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability both teams will score; these projections are statistical and should be used responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.65

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Middlesbrough FC
Nov 2025 Middlesbrough FC 2–1 Derby County FC