Derby County FC vs Wrexham AFC Prediction

Championship · Sun 4 Jan, 15:00
Derby County FC
12 Full time
Wrexham AFC
Derby County FC 1–2 Wrexham AFC

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (38%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 28%
Away 33%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1506 v 1545 Wrexham rated higher
Form Index WDDLW v DLWWW Derby County 1.6 · Wrexham 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Wrexham

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1506 vs 1545).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Wrexham
Form Index
Wrexham
Goal expectation
Wrexham
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Wrexham. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyWDDLW1.6 ppg
WrexhamDLWWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1506
Wrexham1545
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model28% · 33% · 39%
Power Rating41% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning46% · 28% · 26%

AI match preview

Derby County FC hosts Wrexham AFC in a Championship clash where the model gives a slight edge to the home side with a 38% chance of victory, while a draw and away win stand at 28% and 33% respectively. The expected goals suggest a closely contested match with a probable 1-1 scoreline and a moderate 45% chance both teams find the net. As always, these projections are statistical estimates—please enjoy responsibly and gamble only if you're 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.96 – 1.18

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 36%

Under 64%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby County FC 1–2 Wrexham AFC
Sept 2025 Wrexham AFC 1–1 Derby County FC