Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 20 Jan, 19:45
Charlton Athletic FC 1–2 Derby County FC

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (29%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 36%
Draw 29%
Away 35%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 36.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 36.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1474 v 1509 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LLDDW v DLWLW Charlton 1.0 · Derby County 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1474 vs 1509).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Charlton

Green = favours Charlton · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
CharltonLLDDW1.0 ppg
Derby CountyDLWLW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Charlton1474
Derby County1509
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 32% · 39%
Power Rating41% · 24% · 35%
Machine-learning38% · 30% · 32%

AI match preview

Charlton Athletic and Derby County are projected to contest a tight Championship clash, with the model showing a narrow edge for the home side at 36%, closely matched by Derby at 35%, while a draw holds a 29% chance. Expected goals are relatively balanced, suggesting a low-scoring encounter likely to end 1-1, with under 2.5 goals favored and both teams scoring just under a 50% probability. These projections offer insight based on current data, but remember to gamble responsibly and only bet if you’re 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.23

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Charlton Athletic FC 1–2 Derby County FC
Sept 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Charlton Athletic FC