Bristol City FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Fri 30 Jan, 20:00
Bristol City FC 0–5 Derby County FC

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 27%
Away 30%

💡 Bristol City FC have a slight edge — leaning Bristol City FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.9/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1513 v 1516 Derby County rated higher
Form Index WLDLW v WLWWD Bristol City 1.4 · Derby County 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Bristol City v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1513 vs 1516).
  • Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Bristol City
Home advantage
Bristol City

Green = favours Bristol City · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Bristol CityWLDLW1.4 ppg
Derby CountyWLWWD2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Bristol City1513
Derby County1516
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 30% · 33%
Power Rating46% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning46% · 30% · 24%

AI match preview

Bristol City FC and Derby County FC are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 43% probability, while a draw and away win hold 27% and 30% respectively. The expected goals are nearly even, 1.36 for Bristol City and 1.26 for Derby, suggesting a tight encounter likely to produce around two goals, with 1-1 the most probable scoreline. There's also a 55% chance both teams will score and a 49% chance the match will see over 2.5 goals; as always, these projections are based on statistical analysis—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.26

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Bristol City FC 0–5 Derby County FC
Aug 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Bristol City FC