Derby County FC vs Swansea City AFC Prediction

Championship · Sat 14 Feb, 15:00
Derby County FC 2–0 Swansea City AFC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 26%
Away 29%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1531 v 1505 Derby County rated higher
Form Index WWDWL v DWLWW Derby County 2.0 · Swansea 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Swansea

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1531 vs 1505).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Swansea. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyWWDWL2.0 ppg
SwanseaDWLWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1531
Swansea1505
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model34% · 32% · 35%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning50% · 27% · 23%

AI match preview

Derby County FC hosts Swansea City AFC in a Championship clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 45%, though a draw and away win remain realistic outcomes at 26% and 29% respectively. Both teams are projected to score around 1.1 goals each, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline, with just under half the probability for both teams to score. With a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, expect a competitive encounter, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.15

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 40%

Under 60%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Derby County FC 2–0 Swansea City AFC
Nov 2025 Swansea City AFC 1–2 Derby County FC