Watford FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
Watford FC
20 Full time
Derby County FC
Watford FC 2–0 Derby County FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (37%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 28%
Away 34%

💡 Watford FC have a slight edge — leaning Watford FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 38.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1507 v 1543 Derby County rated higher
Form Index DLDLD v WDWLW Watford 0.6 · Derby County 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Watford v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1507 vs 1543).
  • Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Watford

Green = favours Watford · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
WatfordDLDLD0.6 ppg
Derby CountyWDWLW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Watford1507
Derby County1543
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 29% · 42%
Power Rating41% · 24% · 35%
Machine-learning42% · 33% · 26%

AI match preview

Watford FC and Derby County FC are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to Watford at 37% versus Derby’s 34%. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting an expected goals range between 1.20 and 1.49 for both sides combined. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 56% probability of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open and competitive game; please remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.49

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Watford FC 2–0 Derby County FC
Nov 2025 Derby County FC 2–3 Watford FC