Millwall FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
Millwall FC
10 Full time
Derby County FC
Millwall FC 1–0 Derby County FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 24%
Away 34%

💡 Millwall FC have a slight edge — leaning Millwall FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1590 v 1528 Millwall rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Millwall v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Millwall FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1590 vs 1528).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Millwall
Form Index
Millwall
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Millwall

Green = favours Millwall · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MillwallWLWWW2.4 ppg
Derby CountyWLLWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Millwall1590
Derby County1528
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 28% · 40%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning34% · 30% · 36%

AI match preview

Millwall FC and Derby County FC are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 41% probability, while a draw and away win stand at 24% and 34% respectively. The expected goals suggest a tight game with 1.36 for Millwall and 1.54 for Derby, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% likelihood of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open match, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.54

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 55%

Under 45%

Both teams to score

Yes 60%

No 40%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Millwall FC 1–0 Derby County FC
Dec 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Millwall FC