Portsmouth FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Mon 16 Mar, 20:00
Portsmouth FC
01 Full time
Derby County FC
Portsmouth FC 0–1 Derby County FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (38%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 29%
Away 38%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 39.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1463 v 1521 Derby County rated higher
Form Index 0.8 v 1.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1521 vs 1463).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Portsmouth

Green = favours Portsmouth · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PortsmouthWLLDL0.8 ppg
Derby CountyLLWWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Portsmouth1463
Derby County1521
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 31% · 42%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning35% · 30% · 35%

AI match preview

Portsmouth FC and Derby County FC meet in a Championship clash where the model slightly favors an away win for Derby at 38%, though a draw and home victory remain plausible outcomes. The expected goals suggest a close contest with Derby marginally edging Portsmouth (1.35 to 1.03), and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. With under 2.5 goals and both teams scoring just under 50% probability, this match could be tightly contested—remember these projections are statistical estimates and please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.35

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%

No 51%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Portsmouth FC 0–1 Derby County FC
Dec 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Portsmouth FC