Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 21 Mar, 12:30
Derby County FC 1–0 Birmingham City FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (51%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 51%
Draw 24%
Away 26%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 57.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 57.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1532 v 1495 Derby County rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 0.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Birmingham

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1532 vs 1495).
  • Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Birmingham. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWWLW1.8 ppg
BirminghamLLLWD0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1532
Birmingham1495
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 29% · 22%
Power Rating53% · 18% · 29%
Machine-learning49% · 25% · 26%

AI match preview

Derby County FC holds a slight edge with a 51% chance of victory against Birmingham City FC, though a draw remains a notable possibility at 24%. The expected goals suggest a moderately tight contest, with Derby projected to score 1.49 and Birmingham 0.92, aligning with the model's most likely 1-1 scoreline. With under 2.5 goals favored at 57% and both teams scoring predicted at just under 50%, this match could be closely contested; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.49 – 0.92

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Birmingham City FC
Dec 2025 Birmingham City FC 1–1 Derby County FC