Coventry City FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Fri 3 Apr, 20:00
Coventry City FC 3–2 Derby County FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (59%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 59%
Draw 21%
Away 20%

💡 Coventry City FC are favourites — about 59 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 69.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 69.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1643 v 1540 Coventry City rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 2.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Coventry City v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Coventry City FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1643 vs 1540).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Coventry City
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Coventry City
Home advantage
Coventry City

Green = favours Coventry City · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Coventry CityWWWLW2.4 ppg
Derby CountyWWLWW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Coventry City1643
Derby County1540
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model53% · 26% · 21%
Power Rating64% · 12% · 24%
Machine-learning58% · 26% · 16%

AI match preview

Coventry City FC is favored to edge out Derby County FC with a 59% chance of victory, supported by a solid confidence rating of 69/100. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Coventry against 1.04 for Derby, suggesting a competitive match that could still result in a draw, with 1-1 as the most likely scoreline. With over 2.5 goals and both teams to score probabilities hovering just above 50%, fans can anticipate an open contest, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.04

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 54%

Under 46%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Coventry City FC 3–2 Derby County FC
Aug 2025 Derby County FC 3–5 Coventry City FC