Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC Prediction

Championship · Mon 6 Apr, 15:00
Derby County FC
20 Full time
Stoke City FC
Derby County FC 2–0 Stoke City FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (48%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 48%
Draw 25%
Away 27%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 53.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 53.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1534 v 1480 Derby County rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1534 vs 1480).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Stoke. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyWLWWL1.8 ppg
StokeLDWLW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1534
Stoke1480
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 34% · 28%
Power Rating56% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning49% · 27% · 25%

AI match preview

Derby County FC holds a slight edge with a 48% chance of victory against Stoke City FC, while a draw is projected at 25%, and an away win at 27%. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Derby scoring 1.11 and Stoke 0.93, making 1-1 the most likely scoreline. With only a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, this match could be a tight, low-scoring affair—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.93

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 33%

Under 67%

Both teams to score

Yes 42%

No 58%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Derby County FC 2–0 Stoke City FC
Aug 2025 Stoke City FC 3–1 Derby County FC