Southampton FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 11 Apr, 15:00
Southampton FC 2–1 Derby County FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (50%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 50%
Draw 24%
Away 26%

💡 Southampton FC are favourites — about 50 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 57.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 57.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1607 v 1545 Southampton rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Southampton v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Southampton FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1607 vs 1545).
  • Southampton FC is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.8 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Southampton
Form Index
Southampton
Goal expectation
Southampton
Home advantage
Southampton

Green = favours Southampton · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SouthamptonDWWWW2.6 ppg
Derby CountyLWWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Southampton1607
Derby County1545
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 30% · 25%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 27%
Machine-learning47% · 27% · 26%

AI match preview

Southampton FC hosts Derby County FC in a Championship clash where the model gives a slight edge to the home side with a 50% chance of victory, compared to 26% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. Expected goals suggest a close contest, with Southampton favored to net 1.44 goals against Derby's 1.00, while the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw. With a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance both teams scoring, this match promises competitive action, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.00

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St Mary's Stadium Southampton, England Capacity 32,384 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Southampton FC 2–1 Derby County FC
Oct 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Southampton FC