Derby County FC vs Oxford United FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 18 Apr, 12:30
Derby County FC 1–0 Oxford United FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (52%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 52%
Draw 23%
Away 25%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 52 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 60.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 60.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1538 v 1458 Derby County rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Oxford United

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1538 vs 1458).
  • Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Oxford United. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyWWLWL1.8 ppg
Oxford UnitedDLDDW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1538
Oxford United1458
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 30% · 26%
Power Rating60% · 14% · 26%
Machine-learning53% · 26% · 21%

AI match preview

Derby County FC holds a slight advantage with a 52% probability of securing a home win against Oxford United FC, though a draw remains a plausible 23% outcome. The expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Derby edging Oxford 1.38 to 1.03, and the most common predicted scoreline being a 1-1 draw. With a 50% chance of both teams scoring and only a 43% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, this match could feature balanced attacking efforts; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.03

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Oxford United FC
Oct 2025 Oxford United FC 1–0 Derby County FC