Norwich City FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 21 Apr, 19:45
Norwich City FC 2–1 Derby County FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (38%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 26%
Away 36%

💡 Norwich City FC have a slight edge — leaning Norwich City FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1559 v 1545 Norwich rated higher
Form Index 2 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Norwich v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1559 vs 1545).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Norwich
Form Index
Norwich
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Norwich

Green = favours Norwich · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NorwichWDWLW2 ppg
Derby CountyWLWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Norwich1559
Derby County1545
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 28% · 45%
Power Rating49% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning38% · 29% · 33%

AI match preview

Norwich City and Derby County are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring a Norwich win at 38% against Derby’s 36%, while a draw holds a 26% chance. The expected goals suggest a tight encounter, with a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome, supported by a 55% probability for both teams to score and a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals. These projections highlight a competitive match where margins could be fine, so please remember these are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.54

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Norwich City FC 2–1 Derby County FC
Oct 2025 Derby County FC 1–0 Norwich City FC