Queens Park Rangers FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 25 Apr, 15:00
Queens Park Rangers FC 2–3 Derby County FC

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (38%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 26%
Away 36%

💡 Queens Park Rangers FC have a slight edge — leaning Queens Park Rangers FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1467 v 1536 Derby County rated higher
Form Index 1 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1536 vs 1467).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
QPR

Green = favours QPR · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
QPRWDDLL1 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
QPR1467
Derby County1536
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model34% · 25% · 42%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning45% · 27% · 28%

AI match preview

Queens Park Rangers FC and Derby County FC are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to QPR at 38% compared to Derby's 36%, while a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals suggest a tight game with both teams likely to find the net, reflected in a 1-1 most probable scoreline and a high 69% chance of BTTS. With a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate an open match, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.85

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 68%

Under 32%

Both teams to score

Yes 69%

No 31%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Loftus Road London, England Capacity 18,439 · grass
Mainly clear · 17.2°C
Feels like 15.5°C Wind 3 km/h Rain chance 0%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Queens Park Rangers FC 2–3 Derby County FC
Oct 2025 Derby County FC 1–0 Queens Park Rangers FC