Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal CF Prediction

Primera Division · Fri 13 Mar, 20:00
Deportivo Alavés 1–1 Villarreal CF

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Draw (35%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 24%
Draw 35%
Away 41%

💡 Our model leans towards a draw (35%) — expect a tight one.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 42.4/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 42.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1422 v 1580 Villarreal rated higher
Form Index LDDLL v LWWLW Alavés 0.4 · Villarreal 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alavés v Villarreal

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Why we predict this

  • Villarreal CF is the stronger side on Power Rating (1580 vs 1422).
  • Villarreal CF is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Villarreal
Form Index
Villarreal
Goal expectation
Villarreal
Home advantage
Alavés

Green = favours Alavés · Blue = favours Villarreal. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavésLDDLL0.4 ppg
VillarrealLWWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Alavés1422
Villarreal1580
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 29% · 39%
Power Rating30% · 19% · 51%
Machine-learning9% · 60% · 31%

AI match preview

Deportivo Alavés and Villarreal CF are poised for a closely contested Primera Division clash, with the model giving the highest probability to a draw at 35%, reflecting a balanced encounter. Both teams are expected to find the net, as indicated by a 57% chance of BTTS and a most likely scoreline of 1-1, supported by expected goals of 1.29 for Alavés and 1.43 for Villarreal. Over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 51%, suggesting a moderately open game, but these projections are statistical estimates and should be considered carefully—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.43

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 51%

Under 49%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Deportivo Alavés 1–1 Villarreal CF
Jan 2026 Villarreal CF 3–1 Deportivo Alavés