Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid Prediction

Primera Division · Sat 23 May, 20:00
Deportivo Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 29%
Away 29%

💡 Deportivo Alavés have a slight edge — leaning Deportivo Alavés, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.0/100
🔒 Locked 20 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1463 v 1509 Rayo Vallecano rated higher
Form Index 2 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alavés v Rayo Vallecano

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Why we predict this

  • Rayo Vallecano de Madrid is the stronger side on Power Rating (1509 vs 1463).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Rayo Vallecano
Form Index
Alavés
Goal expectation
Alavés
Home advantage
Alavés

Green = favours Alavés · Blue = favours Rayo Vallecano. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavésWLDWW2 ppg
Rayo VallecanoDWDDW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Alavés1463
Rayo Vallecano1509
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 31% · 25%
Power Rating39% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning43% · 31% · 26%

AI match preview

Deportivo Alavés hold a slight advantage with a 42% chance to win against Rayo Vallecano, though a draw or away victory each have a 29% probability, reflecting a closely matched contest. The expected goals suggest a tight game, with Alavés projected to score 1.36 and Rayo 0.97, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With under 2.5 goals favored at 59% and both teams scoring in just under half of matches, fans can anticipate a competitive, potentially low-scoring encounter. Remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 0.97

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 41%

Under 59%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Deportivo Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Oct 2025 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1–0 Deportivo Alavés