CD Tondela vs FC Alverca Prediction

Primeira Liga · Fri 13 Feb, 20:45
CD Tondela
11 Full time
FC Alverca
CD Tondela 1–1 FC Alverca

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 32%
Draw 29%
Away 39%

💡 FC Alverca have a slight edge — leaning FC Alverca, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 41.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1403 v 1452 Alverca rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Tondela v Alverca

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Why we predict this

  • FC Alverca is the stronger side on Power Rating (1452 vs 1403).
  • FC Alverca is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Alverca
Form Index
Alverca
Goal expectation
Alverca
Home advantage
Tondela

Green = favours Tondela · Blue = favours Alverca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
TondelaLLLDD0.4 ppg
AlvercaWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Tondela1403
Alverca1452
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model31% · 33% · 37%
Power Rating39% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning26% · 30% · 45%

AI match preview

CD Tondela and FC Alverca face off in a tightly contested Primeira Liga match, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 39% probability. Both teams are expected to score, as indicated by a 46% chance for both teams to score and a likely 1-1 draw, supported by projected goals of 1.05 and 1.16 respectively. While the odds lean towards a competitive encounter, these projections are statistical estimates—please enjoy responsibly and gamble only if you are 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.16

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 CD Tondela 1–1 FC Alverca
Sept 2025 FC Alverca 1–0 CD Tondela