FC Arouca vs CD Nacional Prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat 21 Feb, 15:30
FC Arouca
30 Full time
CD Nacional
FC Arouca 3–0 CD Nacional

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (34%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 29%
Draw 34%
Away 36%

💡 Our model leans towards a draw (34%) — expect a tight one.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 37.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1436 v 1459 CD Nacional rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 0.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Arouca v CD Nacional

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1436 vs 1459).
  • FC Arouca is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.6 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
CD Nacional
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
CD Nacional
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours CD Nacional. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaWLWWL1.8 ppg
CD NacionalLWLDL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1436
CD Nacional1459
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model25% · 28% · 48%
Power Rating43% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning19% · 53% · 28%

AI match preview

FC Arouca and CD Nacional are set for a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 36% but also highlighting a 34% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest a moderately open game, with a 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcome and a 55% chance both teams will score. Over 2.5 goals is just above even odds at 51%, indicating a balanced offensive encounter. These projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.61

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 51%

Under 49%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 FC Arouca 3–0 CD Nacional
Sept 2025 CD Nacional 1–2 FC Arouca