FC Arouca vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica Prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat 14 Mar, 20:30
FC Arouca 1–2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (66%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 12%
Draw 22%
Away 66%

💡 Sport Lisboa e Benfica are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 79.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 79.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1441 v 1667 SL Benfica rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 2.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica is the stronger side on Power Rating (1667 vs 1441).
  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
SL Benfica
Form Index
SL Benfica
Goal expectation
SL Benfica
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours SL Benfica. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaWLWLL1.2 ppg
SL BenficaWWWWD2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1441
SL Benfica1667
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model6% · 16% · 78%
Power Rating25% · 13% · 63%
Machine-learning2% · 39% · 59%

AI match preview

FC Arouca face a tough challenge at home against Sport Lisboa e Benfica, with the model giving the visitors a 66% chance of victory and a confidence rating of 79/100. Expected goals suggest Benfica could net around 2.6 times to Arouca’s 0.66, making a 0-2 scoreline the most probable outcome. With a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance both teams score, this match promises attacking play, though these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.66 – 2.60

Most likely score

0-2

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 FC Arouca 1–2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Oct 2025 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 5–0 FC Arouca