Casa Pia AC vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica Prediction

Primeira Liga · Mon 6 Apr, 20:45
Casa Pia AC 1–1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (69%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 10%
Draw 21%
Away 69%

💡 Sport Lisboa e Benfica are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 82.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 82.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1418 v 1679 SL Benfica rated higher
Form Index 1 v 2.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica is the stronger side on Power Rating (1679 vs 1418).
  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
SL Benfica
Form Index
SL Benfica
Goal expectation
SL Benfica
Home advantage
Casa Pia

Green = favours Casa Pia · Blue = favours SL Benfica. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Casa PiaWLDDL1 ppg
SL BenficaWWDWW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Casa Pia1418
SL Benfica1679
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model6% · 16% · 78%
Power Rating22% · 12% · 67%
Machine-learning1% · 36% · 63%

AI match preview

Casa Pia AC face a tough challenge at home against Sport Lisboa e Benfica, with the model giving the visitors a strong 69% chance of victory. The expected goals tally suggests Benfica could net around 2.5 goals, while Casa Pia may struggle to score more than once, making a 0-2 scoreline the most probable outcome. With a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals but only 45% for both teams to score, this match leans towards a Benfica win with a moderate goal count; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.65 – 2.55

Most likely score

0-2

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 62%

Under 38%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Casa Pia AC 1–1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Nov 2025 Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2–2 Casa Pia AC