FC Arouca vs CF Estrela da Amadora Prediction

Primeira Liga · Sun 19 Apr, 15:30
FC Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela da Amadora

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 26%
Away 30%

💡 FC Arouca have a slight edge — leaning FC Arouca, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1455 v 1422 Arouca rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 0.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1455 vs 1422).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Arouca
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
Arouca
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Amadora. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaLLWWL1.2 ppg
AmadoraDLWLL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1455
Amadora1422
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 26% · 30%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning36% · 34% · 30%

AI match preview

FC Arouca hosts CF Estrela da Amadora in a tightly contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 44% probability of a win. Both teams are expected to find the net, as indicated by a 65% chance for both teams to score and an anticipated close scoreline around 1-1. With a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, this match could offer plenty of attacking action, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.46

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 65%

No 35%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 FC Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela da Amadora
Dec 2025 CF Estrela da Amadora 3–1 FC Arouca