Southampton FC vs Middlesbrough FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 12 May, 20:00
Southampton FC 2–1 Middlesbrough FC

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (50%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 50%
Draw 24%
Away 26%

💡 Southampton FC are favourites — about 50 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 56.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 56.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1636 v 1574 Southampton rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Southampton v Middlesbrough

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Southampton FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1636 vs 1574).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Southampton
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Southampton
Home advantage
Southampton

Green = favours Southampton · Blue = favours Middlesbrough. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SouthamptonWDDWD1.8 ppg
MiddlesbroughDWWDD1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Southampton1636
Middlesbrough1574
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 29% · 28%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 27%
Machine-learning48% · 28% · 24%

AI match preview

Southampton FC holds a slight edge with a 50% chance of winning against Middlesbrough FC, who are tipped at 26%, while a draw sits at 24%. The model projects a closely contested match with an expected goals tally of 1.49 for Southampton and 1.16 for Middlesbrough, making 1-1 the most probable scoreline despite the home win pick. With a 49% probability for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.16

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Stadium & conditions

St Mary's Stadium Southampton, England Capacity 32,384 · grass
Mainly clear · 14.8°C
Feels like 11.4°C Wind 13 km/h Rain chance 0%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Southampton FC 2–1 Middlesbrough FC
May 2026 Middlesbrough FC 0–0 Southampton FC
Jan 2026 Middlesbrough FC 4–0 Southampton FC
Sept 2025 Southampton FC 1–1 Middlesbrough FC