Derby County FC vs Swansea City AFC Prediction

Championship · Sat 29 Aug, 15:00
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 15:00
Swansea City AFC

Match result prediction

Home 44%
Draw 26%
Away 30%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 47.9/100
Confirm you are 18+ to see betting odds and value Predictions, probabilities and stats stay free for everyone.
🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1561 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v WLWDW Derby County 1.2 · Swansea 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Swansea

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

📺 Guess the VAR — how many VAR checks in this match?

Loading the crowd's guesses…

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1562 vs 1561).
  • Swansea City AFC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Swansea
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Swansea. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
SwanseaWLWDW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Swansea1561
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model41% · 32% · 27%
Power Rating47% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning44% · 25% · 32%

AI match preview

Derby County FC host Swansea City AFC in a Championship clash where the model gives a slight edge to the home side with a 44% chance of winning, though a draw at 26% and an away win at 30% remain plausible outcomes. Expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Derby marginally favored to score 1.23 goals to Swansea’s 0.94, aligning with the most likely 1-1 scoreline. With only a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, this match could be a cautious, closely fought encounter—remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.23 – 0.94

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 37%

Under 63%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Derby County FC 2–0 Swansea City AFC
Nov 2025 Swansea City AFC 1–2 Derby County FC