Match result prediction
💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.
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Why we predict this
- Closely matched on Power Rating (1562 vs 1561).
- Swansea City AFC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
- All 3 model components agree on this outcome.
What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours
Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Swansea. The model blends these into the probabilities above.
AI match preview
Derby County FC host Swansea City AFC in a Championship clash where the model gives a slight edge to the home side with a 44% chance of winning, though a draw at 26% and an away win at 30% remain plausible outcomes. Expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Derby marginally favored to score 1.23 goals to Swansea’s 0.94, aligning with the most likely 1-1 scoreline. With only a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, this match could be a cautious, closely fought encounter—remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).
Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.
Match predictions
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.94
Most likely score
1-1
15% likely
Over/Under 2.5
Over 37%
Under 63%
Both teams to score
Yes 45%
No 55%
Value bet vs odds
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Stadium & conditions
Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.