Portsmouth FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 1 Sept, 19:45
Portsmouth FC
1–1 Predicted · 19:45
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 31%
Draw 31%
Away 38%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 39.9/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1503 v 1562 Derby County rated higher
Form Index DWWWD v LWLWL Portsmouth 2.2 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1503).
  • Portsmouth FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Portsmouth
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Portsmouth

Green = favours Portsmouth · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PortsmouthDWWWD2.2 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Portsmouth1503
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 31% · 42%
Power Rating37% · 27% · 36%
Machine-learning27% · 37% · 37%

AI match preview

Portsmouth FC and Derby County FC are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 38% but also giving a strong 31% chance for both a home win and a draw. The expected goals indicate a tight match, likely to end with a 1-1 scoreline, while the probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score hover around 40% and 48%, respectively. These projections highlight the competitive nature of the fixture, but remember they are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.30

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 40%

Under 60%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Portsmouth FC 0–1 Derby County FC
Dec 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Portsmouth FC