Who is predicted to win Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC?

Our AI model predicts Home win (52% probability). The home/draw/away split is 52% / 23% / 24%.

What is the predicted score for Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC?

The most likely scoreline from the SwiftScore model is 1-0 (16%), from projected expected goals of 1.32–0.72.

Will both teams score in Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC?

Both teams to score: Yes 39%, No 61%. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 33%.

How confident is SwiftScore in this Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC prediction?

SwiftScore rates this call 60/100. Every prediction is locked before kick-off and graded against the real result on our public accuracy page.

Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 12 Sept, 15:00

Derby County FC

1–0 Predicted · 15:00

Birmingham City FC

Match result prediction

Home 52%

Draw 23%

Away 24%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 52 times in 100.

Our pickHome win

SwiftScore Medium · 60.0/100

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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited

SwiftScore 60.0

/100 confidence

Power Rating 1562 v 1517 Derby County rated higher

Form Index LWLWL v LWWWD Derby County 1.2 · Birmingham 2.0 ppg

Model Consensus 100%

models back the pick

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Why we predict this

Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1517).
Birmingham City FC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.3 expected goals).
All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating

Derby County

Form Index

Birmingham

Goal expectation

Derby County

Home advantage

Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Birmingham. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)

Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg

BirminghamLWWWD2.0 ppg

Power Rating

Derby County1562

Birmingham1517

Model Consensus (home/draw/away)

Goals model49% · 32% · 19%

Power Rating54% · 17% · 29%

Machine-learning53% · 22% · 25%

AI match preview

Derby County FC holds a slight edge with a 52% probability of securing a home win against Birmingham City FC, supported by an expected goals margin of 1.32 to 0.72. The most probable outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory for Derby, with a relatively low chance of both teams scoring or the match exceeding 2.5 goals. As always, these projections are based on statistical models and should be used responsibly when considering bets (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.32 – 0.72

Most likely score

1-0

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 33%

Under 67%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Birmingham City FC

Dec 2025 Birmingham City FC 1–1 Derby County FC