Derby County FC vs Wrexham AFC Prediction

Championship · Sat 10 Oct, 15:00
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 15:00
Wrexham AFC

Match result prediction

Home 41%
Draw 26%
Away 33%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.4/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1549 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v LLWWD Derby County 1.2 · Wrexham 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1562 vs 1549).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Wrexham
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Wrexham. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
WrexhamLLWWD1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Wrexham1549
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 32% · 34%
Power Rating49% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning40% · 26% · 34%

AI match preview

Derby County FC host Wrexham AFC in a Championship clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 41% chance of victory, while a draw and away win stand at 26% and 33% respectively. The model projects a closely contested match with an expected goals tally hovering around 1.1 for both teams and a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline. With under 2.5 goals favored and a 47% probability of both teams scoring, fans should anticipate a competitive encounter; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.13

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby County FC 1–2 Wrexham AFC
Sept 2025 Wrexham AFC 1–1 Derby County FC