Who is predicted to win Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC?

Our AI model predicts Home win (58% probability). The home/draw/away split is 58% / 22% / 20%.

What is the predicted score for Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC?

The most likely scoreline from the SwiftScore model is 0-0 (17%), from projected expected goals of 1.19–0.68.

Will both teams score in Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC?

Both teams to score: Yes 36%, No 64%. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 29%.

How confident is SwiftScore in this Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC prediction?

SwiftScore rates this call 68.1/100. Every prediction is locked before kick-off and graded against the real result on our public accuracy page.

Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 17 Oct, 15:00

Derby County FC

0–0 Predicted · 15:00

Stoke City FC

Match result prediction

Home 58%

Draw 22%

Away 20%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win

SwiftScore Medium · 68.1/100

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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited

SwiftScore 68.1

/100 confidence

Power Rating 1562 v 1431 Derby County rated higher

Form Index LWLWL v DLLLL Derby County 1.2 · Stoke 0.2 ppg

Model Consensus 100%

models back the pick

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Why we predict this

Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1431).
Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (1.2 vs 0.2 pts/game).
Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.2 expected goals).
All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating

Derby County

Form Index

Derby County

Goal expectation

Derby County

Home advantage

Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Stoke. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)

Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg

StokeDLLLL0.2 ppg

Power Rating

Derby County1562

Stoke1431

Model Consensus (home/draw/away)

Goals model47% · 34% · 20%

Power Rating67% · 12% · 22%

Machine-learning61% · 22% · 18%

AI match preview

Derby County FC holds a statistical edge with a 58% chance of securing a home win against Stoke City FC, supported by an expected goals advantage of 1.19 to 0.68. Despite this, the model also highlights a significant probability of a goalless draw, with 0-0 being the most likely scoreline. With low chances for over 2.5 goals (29%) and both teams to score (36%), this matchup could be a tight, low-scoring affair; remember these are projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.19 – 0.68

Most likely score

0-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 29%

Under 71%

Both teams to score

Yes 36%

No 64%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Derby County FC 2–0 Stoke City FC

Aug 2025 Stoke City FC 3–1 Derby County FC