Who is predicted to win Southampton FC vs Derby County FC?

Our AI model predicts Home win (55% probability). The home/draw/away split is 55% / 22% / 23%.

What is the predicted score for Southampton FC vs Derby County FC?

The most likely scoreline from the SwiftScore model is 1-1 (14%), from projected expected goals of 1.47–0.98.

Will both teams score in Southampton FC vs Derby County FC?

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 44%.

How confident is SwiftScore in this Southampton FC vs Derby County FC prediction?

SwiftScore rates this call 63.1/100. Every prediction is locked before kick-off and graded against the real result on our public accuracy page.

Southampton FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Southampton FC

1–1 Predicted · 15:00

Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 55%

Draw 22%

Away 23%

💡 Southampton FC are favourites — about 55 times in 100.

Our pickHome win

SwiftScore Medium · 63.1/100

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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited

SwiftScore 63.1

/100 confidence

Power Rating 1652 v 1562 Southampton rated higher

Form Index WDWDW v LWLWL Southampton 2.2 · Derby County 1.2 ppg

Model Consensus 100%

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Why we predict this

Southampton FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1652 vs 1562).
Southampton FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating

Southampton

Form Index

Southampton

Goal expectation

Southampton

Home advantage

Southampton

Green = favours Southampton · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)

SouthamptonWDWDW2.2 ppg

Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg

Power Rating

Southampton1652

Derby County1562

Model Consensus (home/draw/away)

Goals model47% · 30% · 24%

Power Rating62% · 13% · 25%

Machine-learning54% · 25% · 21%

AI match preview

Southampton FC hold a 55% chance of securing victory against Derby County FC, with a projected 1.47 expected goals compared to Derby’s 0.98, indicating a slight edge for the home side. Despite this, the model suggests a 22% probability for a draw, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, reflecting a competitive encounter. Over 2.5 goals is less probable at 44%, while both teams scoring is evenly poised at 50%, reminding fans that these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.98

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St Mary's Stadium Southampton, England Capacity 32,384 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Southampton FC 2–1 Derby County FC

Oct 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Southampton FC