Southampton FC vs Middlesbrough FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 28 Nov, 15:00
Southampton FC
1–1 Predicted · 15:00
Middlesbrough FC

Match result prediction

Home 54%
Draw 23%
Away 24%

💡 Southampton FC are favourites — about 54 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 61.9/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 61.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1652 v 1581 Southampton rated higher
Form Index WDWDW v WWDDL Southampton 2.2 · Middlesbrough 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Southampton FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1652 vs 1581).
  • Southampton FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Southampton
Form Index
Southampton
Goal expectation
Southampton
Home advantage
Southampton

Green = favours Southampton · Blue = favours Middlesbrough. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SouthamptonWDWDW2.2 ppg
MiddlesbroughWWDDL1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Southampton1652
Middlesbrough1581
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model48% · 29% · 23%
Power Rating58% · 15% · 27%
Machine-learning54% · 25% · 21%

AI match preview

Southampton FC holds a slight statistical edge with a 54% chance of victory against Middlesbrough FC, though a draw remains a notable 23% possibility. The model predicts a closely contested match with an expected goals tally favoring Southampton 1.51 to 0.99, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1. With both teams to score at 51% and under 2.5 goals favored at 54%, this game promises tight margins; remember these are probabilities, so please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.51 – 0.99

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 46%

Under 54%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

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Season averages (per game · last 130+ matches)

SouthamptonMiddlesbrough
5.8 Corners 6.0
2.1 Cards 1.6
10.7 Fouls 9.8

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

St Mary's Stadium Southampton, England Capacity 32,384 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Southampton FC 2–1 Middlesbrough FC
May 2026 Middlesbrough FC 0–0 Southampton FC
Jan 2026 Middlesbrough FC 4–0 Southampton FC
Sept 2025 Southampton FC 1–1 Middlesbrough FC