Derby County FC vs Watford FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 28 Nov, 15:00
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 15:00
Watford FC

Match result prediction

Home 57%
Draw 21%
Away 21%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 57 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 67.2/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 67.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1451 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v DLLLL Derby County 1.2 · Watford 0.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1451).
  • Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (1.2 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Watford. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
WatfordDLLLL0.2 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Watford1451
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model51% · 28% · 20%
Power Rating65% · 12% · 23%
Machine-learning55% · 25% · 20%

AI match preview

Derby County FC holds a 57% probability of securing a home win against Watford FC, with an expected goals tally favoring Derby at 1.56 to 0.91. Despite the home advantage, the model suggests a closely contested match, with a 21% chance of a draw and the most likely scoreline being 1-1. There is moderate potential for goals, with a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability of both teams scoring; please remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.56 – 0.91

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 45%

Under 55%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%

No 51%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Watford FC 2–0 Derby County FC
Nov 2025 Derby County FC 2–3 Watford FC