Middlesbrough FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 5 Dec, 15:00
Middlesbrough FC
1–1 Predicted · 15:00
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 45%
Draw 27%
Away 28%

💡 Middlesbrough FC are favourites — about 45 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 50.1/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 50.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1581 v 1562 Middlesbrough rated higher
Form Index WWDDL v LWLWL Middlesbrough 1.6 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Middlesbrough v Derby County

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1581 vs 1562).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Middlesbrough
Form Index
Middlesbrough
Goal expectation
Middlesbrough
Home advantage
Middlesbrough

Green = favours Middlesbrough · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MiddlesbroughWWDDL1.6 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Middlesbrough1581
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model45% · 33% · 23%
Power Rating50% · 19% · 31%
Machine-learning41% · 30% · 30%

AI match preview

Middlesbrough FC host Derby County FC in a Championship clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 45%, though a draw or away victory remain plausible with 27% and 28% probabilities respectively. Expected goals suggest a modest edge to Middlesbrough (1.25 to 0.82), yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting a competitive encounter. With only a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate a tight, possibly low-scoring game; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.82

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 34%

Under 66%

Both teams to score

Yes 42%

No 58%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Middlesbrough FC
Nov 2025 Middlesbrough FC 2–1 Derby County FC