Derby County FC vs Bristol City FC Prediction

Championship · Wed 9 Dec, 19:45
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 19:45
Bristol City FC

Match result prediction

Home 50%
Draw 23%
Away 27%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 50 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 55.9/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 55.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1487 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v DLDLW Derby County 1.2 · Bristol City 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1487).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Bristol City. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Bristol CityDLDLW1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Bristol City1487
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model37% · 33% · 30%
Power Rating59% · 14% · 26%
Machine-learning52% · 23% · 25%

AI match preview

Derby County FC hosts Bristol City FC in a tightly contested Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 50%, though a draw remains a strong possibility. Expected goals are close, 1.11 for Derby and 0.98 for Bristol City, suggesting a balanced game likely to produce around two goals, with a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and 44% probability both teams scoring. While the most likely scoreline is 1-1, fans should keep in mind these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.98

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 35%

Under 65%

Both teams to score

Yes 44%

No 56%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Bristol City FC 0–5 Derby County FC
Aug 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Bristol City FC