Derby County FC vs Millwall FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 23 Jan, 12:00
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Millwall FC

Match result prediction

Home 35%
Draw 28%
Away 37%

💡 Millwall FC have a slight edge — leaning Millwall FC, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 37.5/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1615 Millwall rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v DWWDW Derby County 1.2 · Millwall 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Millwall FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1615 vs 1562).
  • Millwall FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Millwall
Form Index
Millwall
Goal expectation
Millwall
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Millwall. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
MillwallDWWDW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Millwall1615
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model31% · 34% · 36%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning35% · 26% · 39%

AI match preview

Derby County FC host Millwall FC in a tightly poised Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the visitors at 37% compared to a 35% chance for the home side and a 28% probability of a draw. Expected goals are close, hovering around one per team, suggesting a competitive match that could well end in a 1-1 stalemate. With only a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and 43% probability both teams scoring, fans can anticipate a closely fought encounter; remember these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.99 – 1.09

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 34%

Under 66%

Both teams to score

Yes 43%

No 57%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Millwall FC 1–0 Derby County FC
Dec 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Millwall FC