Norwich City FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 26 Jan, 12:00
Norwich City FC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 40%
Draw 25%
Away 35%

💡 Norwich City FC have a slight edge — leaning Norwich City FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 41.5/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1588 v 1562 Norwich rated higher
Form Index DWWWD v LWLWL Norwich 2.2 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1588 vs 1562).
  • Norwich City FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Norwich
Form Index
Norwich
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Norwich

Green = favours Norwich · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NorwichDWWWD2.2 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Norwich1588
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 29% · 44%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning41% · 29% · 31%

AI match preview

Norwich City and Derby County are set for a tightly contested Championship clash, with the model giving Norwich a slight edge at 40% to claim victory, while a draw and an away win remain plausible outcomes. The expected goals suggest a closely fought match, likely yielding around 1-1, and just over half the simulations predict both teams to score. With less than a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals, fans should anticipate a competitive, low to moderate scoring game. Remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.46

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 47%

Under 53%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Norwich City FC 2–1 Derby County FC
Oct 2025 Derby County FC 1–0 Norwich City FC